Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
